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How many copies did Placid Plastic Duck Simulator sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 503k–817k
$275k–$740k after Steam's cut $500k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
from 20k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Placid Plastic Duck Simulator and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Placid Plastic Duck Simulator's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 276k–437k
best case 1.6M (My Singing Monsters)
Games like Placid Plastic Duck Simulator

A typical game among these

≈ 276k–437k copies

≈ $1.7M–$2.1M after Steam's cut

from ~11k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Creature Collector (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: My Singing Monsters at ≈ 1.2M–2.0M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 485 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Creature Collector (3 of 8) and Co-op (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Creature Collector + Simulation. The breakout hits carry Farming Sim + Colony Sim + Free to Play; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
≈ 277k–450k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.3M before Steam's cut
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ControllerComedy
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2020
Est. copies
≈ 287k–466k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
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$1.2M–$3.2M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.9M before Steam's cut
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Character CustomizationEmotional
Webbed
2021
Est. copies
≈ 380k–617k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.8M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.3M before Steam's cut
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15k reviews
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2D PlatformerCute
Cozy Grove
2021
Est. copies
≈ 211k–343k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$870k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
RelaxingCute
Chillquarium
2023
Est. copies
≈ 209k–339k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$344k–$925k after Steam's cut $626k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$5.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Creature CollectorIdler
My Singing Monsters
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
4.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
50k reviews
Very Positive
Creature CollectorSimulation
Alba: A Wildlife Adventure
2020
Est. copies
≈ 208k–339k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$974k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.0M before Steam's cut
$16.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CasualWholesome
Shop Titans
2020
Est. copies
≈ 446k–725k
1.6x vs typical
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Free
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18k reviews
Mostly Positive
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