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How many copies did Path of Achra sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 81k–131k
$222k–$598k after Steam's cut $404k–$920k before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Path of Achra and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Path of Achra's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 131k–252k
best case 415k (Caves of Qud)
Games like Path of Achra

A typical game among these

≈ 131k–252k copies

≈ $818k–$2.0M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Rogue-like (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Caves of Qud at ≈ 316k–514k copies, ≈ $2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 9k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rogue-like (4 of 8) and Turn-Based (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Procedural Generation + Turn-Based Combat, priced around $30.
When they shipped
5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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2.4x vs typical
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AdventureLoot

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