How much revenue did Caves of Qud make?

$2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Caves of Qud sell?

Q: How many copies did Caves of Qud sell?

316k to 514k copies, based on its 13k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 316k–514k; $2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.8M before Steam's cut; from 13k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Caves of Qud and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Caves of Qud's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.9M–9.0M

best case 28.0M (Baldur's Gate 3)

Games like Caves of Qud

A typical game among these

≈ 4.9M–9.0M copies

≈ $56.2M–$148.0M after Steam's cut

from ~152k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Baldur's Gate 3 at ≈ 21.3M–34.6M copies, ≈ $351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 19k reviews in their first month; the range was 11k to 268k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Turn-Based Combat (6 of 8) and Story Rich (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Character Customization + Choices Matter, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Choices Matter + Dungeons & Dragons + Character Customization; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2016 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
XCOM® 2 2016	Est. copies ≈ 4.6M–7.4M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut $45.6M–$103.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	110k reviews Very Positive	IsometricTurn-Based Combat
Baldur's Gate 3 2023	Est. copies ≈ 21.3M–34.6M 5.7x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut $639.2M–$1454.1M before Steam's cut	$59.99	859k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	RPGCharacter Customization
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017	Est. copies ≈ 7.1M–11.5M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut $159.6M–$363.2M before Steam's cut	$44.99	206k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Tactical RPGRPG
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 2025	Est. copies ≈ 6.9M–11.3M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $95.2M–$256.1M after Steam's cut $173.2M–$394.0M before Steam's cut	$49.99	279k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Turn-Based CombatStory Rich
Persona 5 Royal 2022	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $57.7M–$155.1M after Steam's cut $104.9M–$238.5M before Steam's cut	$59.99	141k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	JRPG Story Rich
Volcano Princess 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–2.0M too small to compare SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.7M–$9.9M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.3M before Steam's cut	$10.99	49k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Life SimMultiple Endings
Darkest Dungeon® 2016	Est. copies ≈ 6.8M–11.0M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $46.5M–$125.1M after Steam's cut $84.6M–$192.5M before Steam's cut	$24.99	163k reviews Very Positive	Turn-Based CombatDark Fantasy
Persona 4 Golden 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.0M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	88k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	JRPGGreat Soundtrack