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How many copies did The Wall Mustn't Fall sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$10k before Steam's cut
from 69 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Wall Mustn't Fall and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Wall Mustn't Fall's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1k–283k
best case 2.5M (Minion Masters)
Games like The Wall Mustn't Fall

A typical game among these

≈ 1k–283k copies

≈ $4k–$655k after Steam's cut

from ~538 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Minion Masters at ≈ 1.9M–3.1M copies.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 3k reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Tower Defense (5 of 8) and Auto Battler (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Tactics.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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121x vs typical
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PvETrading Card Game
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7.6x vs typical
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StrategyAuto Battler
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≈ 558k–906k
42x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
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$17.99
22k reviews
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2 user reviews
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Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut
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RTSWargame
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Est. copies
≈ 149–242
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ShapeHero Factory
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Est. copies
≈ 25k–41k
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
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$23.99
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Early AccessBase-Building

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