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How many copies did Pirate Patrol sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $3k–$7k before Steam's cut
from 50 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Pirate Patrol and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Pirate Patrol's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.4M–4.9M
best case 32.0M (Cyberpunk 2077)
Games like Pirate Patrol

A typical game among these

≈ 3.4M–4.9M copies

≈ $37.3M–$55.1M after Steam's cut

from ~110k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Hack and Slash (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Cyberpunk 2077 at ≈ 24.4M–39.6M copies, ≈ $402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 102k reviews in their first month; the range was 17k to 326k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Hack and Slash (4 of 8) and Action RPG (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-lite, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Hades
2020
Est. copies
≈ 7.7M–12.5M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$52.9M–$142.2M after Steam's cut $96.1M–$218.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
310k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-lite
Grim Dawn
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.4M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$31.4M–$84.5M after Steam's cut $57.2M–$130.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
110k reviews
Very Positive
Action RPGHack and Slash
Path of Exile 2
2024
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.1M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$46.4M–$124.6M after Steam's cut $84.3M–$191.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
227k reviews
Mostly Positive
Action RPGHack and Slash
Noita
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PhysicsRogue-like
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal
2023
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.1M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.6M–$82.4M after Steam's cut $55.7M–$126.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
225k reviews
Mixed
ManagementSingleplayer
Cyberpunk 2077
2020
Est. copies
≈ 24.4M–39.6M
8.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut $730.9M–$1662.7M before Steam's cut
$59.99
983k reviews
Very Positive
CyberpunkOpen World
Last Epoch
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$28.3M–$76.0M after Steam's cut $51.4M–$116.9M before Steam's cut
$34.99
118k reviews
Mostly Positive
Action RPGLoot
Vampire Survivors
2022
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$9.1M–$24.4M after Steam's cut $16.5M–$37.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
267k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell

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