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How many copies did Scarlet Tower sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 59k–96k
$81k–$219k after Steam's cut $148k–$337k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Scarlet Tower and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Scarlet Tower's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 30k–130k
best case 8.7M (Vampire Survivors)
Games like Scarlet Tower

A typical game among these

≈ 30k–130k copies

≈ $58k–$201k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Vampire Survivors at ≈ 6.6M–10.7M copies, ≈ $9.1M–$24.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 957 reviews in their first month; the range was 256 to 129k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rogue-lite (8 of 8) and Action Roguelike (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Bullet Hell, priced around $5. The breakout hits carry Vampire + Indie + Singleplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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1.8x vs typical
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