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How many copies did Mercenary Kings: Reloaded Edition sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 137k–223k
$754k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.1M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mercenary Kings: Reloaded Edition and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Mercenary Kings: Reloaded Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 28.8M–68.0M
best case 129.3M (Terraria)
Games like Mercenary Kings: Reloaded Edition

A typical game among these

≈ 28.8M–68.0M copies

≈ $83.2M–$235.8M after Steam's cut

from ~698k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Survival (2 of 4), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Terraria at ≈ 98.5M–160.1M copies, ≈ $270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Survival (2 of 4) and Crafting (1 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Sandbox, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Among Us
2018
Est. copies
≈ 22.8M–37.0M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$31.3M–$84.0M after Steam's cut $56.8M–$129.3M before Steam's cut
$4.99
749k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerSocial Deduction
Geometry Dash
2014
Est. copies
≈ 36.2M–58.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut $90.4M–$205.7M before Steam's cut
$4.99
647k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultMusic
Terraria
2011
Est. copies
≈ 98.5M–160.1M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut $492.0M–$1119.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
1.6M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSandbox
Hollow Knight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.5M–31.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut $145.9M–$332.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
566k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.