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How many copies did Bleak Sword DX sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 17k–28k
$48k–$129k after Steam's cut $87k–$199k before Steam's cut
from 705 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Bleak Sword DX and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Bleak Sword DX's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1k–28k
best case 326k (Anomaly Agent)
Games like Bleak Sword DX

A typical game among these

≈ 1k–28k copies

≈ $7k–$217k after Steam's cut

from ~188 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Anomaly Agent at ≈ 249k–404k copies, ≈ $820k–$2.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 45 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 5k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 2D Fighter (8 of 8) and Action Roguelike (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + 2D Platformer, priced around $12.
When they shipped
Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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11x vs typical
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Est. copies
≈ 249k–404k
53x vs typical
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Est. revenue
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Run For Your Life
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