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How many copies did Tostchu sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 16k–25k
$34k–$92k after Steam's cut $62k–$141k before Steam's cut
from 625 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tostchu and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tostchu's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 430k–1.1M
best case 2.0M (The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty)
Games like Tostchu

A typical game among these

≈ 430k–1.1M copies

≈ $3.3M–$7.7M after Steam's cut

from ~25k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Visual Novel (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty at ≈ 1.5M–2.4M copies, ≈ $4.1M–$11.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 4 to 17k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Visual Novel (4 of 8) and Cooking (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel + Historical, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2019 to 2025, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Cooking Simulator
2019
Est. copies
≈ 568k–923k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$12.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
20k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationCooking
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut
2023
Est. copies
≈ 856k–1.4M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before Steam's cut
$17.99
35k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelChoices Matter
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.0M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelHistorical
Cruelty Squad
2021
Est. copies
≈ 621k–1.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.4M–$9.2M after Steam's cut $6.2M–$14.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
25k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CapitalismSurreal
REKA
2024
Est. copies
≈ 87k–141k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$476k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $866k–$2.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessBuilding
Sultan's Game
2025
Est. copies
≈ 876k–1.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.0M–$16.2M after Steam's cut $10.9M–$24.9M before Steam's cut
$24.99
35k reviews
Very Positive
Cooking Companions
2021
Est. copies
≈ 30k–49k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$124k–$333k after Steam's cut $225k–$513k before Steam's cut
$14.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelAnime
The Breadmaker
2022
Est. copies
≈ 198–322
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$272–$731 after Steam's cut $494–$1k before Steam's cut
$4.99
8 reviews
8 user reviews

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