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How many copies did Octodad: Dadliest Catch sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 601k–976k
$2.5M–$6.7M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.2M before Steam's cut
from 11k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Octodad: Dadliest Catch and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Octodad: Dadliest Catch's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4k–175k
best case 1.5M (Viscera Cleanup Detail)
Games like Octodad: Dadliest Catch

A typical game among these

≈ 4k–175k copies

≈ $10k–$765k after Steam's cut

from ~192 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Viscera Cleanup Detail at ≈ 1.2M–1.9M copies, ≈ $4.1M–$11.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 24 reviews in their first month; the range was 23 to 47.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Physics (7 of 8) and Simulation (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Gore, priced around $13.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Ragdoll: Fall Simulator
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2k–4k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$7k–$18k after Steam's cut $12k–$28k before Steam's cut
$9.99
98 reviews
Mostly Positive
SimulationDestruction
Baby Walking Simulator
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3k–5k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$4k–$11k after Steam's cut $7k–$17k before Steam's cut
$4.99
103 reviews
Very Positive
IndieCasual
Bleeding Border
2015
Est. copies
≈ 11k–18k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$15k–$42k after Steam's cut $28k–$64k before Steam's cut
$4.99
231 reviews
Mixed
Choose Your Own AdventureFPS
Mount Your Friends
2014
Est. copies
≈ 429k–698k
40x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$589k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.4M before Steam's cut
$4.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FunnyComedy
Virtual Rides 3 - Funfair Simulator
2017
Est. copies
≈ 35k–57k
5.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$241k–$647k after Steam's cut $438k–$995k before Steam's cut
$24.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationCasual
Octodad (Student Edition)
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4k–6k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
152 reviews
Very Positive
3D PlatformerPhysics
Drunken way to Home
2023
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $4k–$8k before Steam's cut
$3.99
72 reviews
Mostly Positive
PhysicsFunny
Viscera Cleanup Detail
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
124x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.1M after Steam's cut $7.5M–$17.1M before Steam's cut
$12.99
24k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationGore

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.