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How many copies did I, the Forgotten One sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5k–8k
$11k–$29k after Steam's cut $20k–$45k before Steam's cut
from 201 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid I, the Forgotten One and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including I, the Forgotten One's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.9M–7.3M
best case 9.7M (Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord)
Games like I, the Forgotten One

A typical game among these

≈ 3.9M–7.3M copies

≈ $50.0M–$88.9M after Steam's cut

from ~98k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord at ≈ 7.4M–12.0M copies, ≈ $101.7M–$273.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 22k reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 200k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Medieval (6 of 8) and War (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Medieval + Open World, priced around $50.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Crusader Kings III
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut
$49.99
143k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyMedieval
This War of Mine
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.1M–$81.0M after Steam's cut $54.8M–$124.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
98k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalWar
Manor Lords
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.3M–$68.1M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
93k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyCity Builder
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.1M–$70.3M after Steam's cut $47.5M–$108.1M before Steam's cut
$39.99
96k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRTS
Spec Ops: The Line
2012
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
56k reviews
Very Positive
Story RichThird-Person Shooter
Love Decision
2021
Est. copies
≈ 397–645
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$545–$1k after Steam's cut $991–$2k before Steam's cut
$4.99
16 reviews
Mixed
Visual NovelDating Sim
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord
2022
Est. copies
≈ 7.4M–12.0M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$101.7M–$273.3M after Steam's cut $184.8M–$420.5M before Steam's cut
$49.99
298k reviews
Very Positive
MedievalStrategy
FOR HONOR™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.2M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$46.9M–$126.2M after Steam's cut $85.3M–$194.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
165k reviews
Mixed
MedievalSwordplay

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