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How many copies did Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 7.4M–12.0M
$101.7M–$273.3M after Steam's cut $184.8M–$420.5M before Steam's cut
from 298k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.1M–6.8M
best case 14.3M (Mount & Blade: Warband)
Games like Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord

A typical game among these

≈ 3.1M–6.8M copies

≈ $31.6M–$106.3M after Steam's cut

from ~95k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Medieval (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Mount & Blade: Warband at ≈ 10.9M–17.7M copies, ≈ $59.8M–$160.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 31k reviews in their first month; the range was 19k to 44k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Medieval (4 of 8) and Open World (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Medieval + Open World, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Mount & Blade: Warband
2010
Est. copies
≈ 10.9M–17.7M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$59.8M–$160.9M after Steam's cut $108.8M–$247.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
172k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MedievalRPG
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.1M–$70.3M after Steam's cut $47.5M–$108.1M before Steam's cut
$39.99
96k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRTS
Manor Lords
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.3M–$68.1M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
93k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyCity Builder
Besiege
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationSandbox
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$55.4M–$149.1M after Steam's cut $100.8M–$229.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
117k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Black Desert
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$24.0M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
94k reviews
Mostly Positive
MMORPGMassively Multiplayer
Albion Online
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
94k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayMMORPG
Europa Universalis IV
2013
Est. copies
≈ 8.5M–13.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$116.6M–$313.5M after Steam's cut $212.0M–$482.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
134k reviews
Very Positive
Grand StrategyStrategy

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