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How many copies did HOPE LEFT ME sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 23k–38k
$13k–$34k after Steam's cut $23k–$52k before Steam's cut
from 934 reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid HOPE LEFT ME and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including HOPE LEFT ME's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1k–19k
best case 137k (HENPRI)
Games like HOPE LEFT ME

A typical game among these

≈ 1k–19k copies

≈ $3k–$91k after Steam's cut

from ~135 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: HENPRI at ≈ 105k–170k copies, ≈ $719k–$1.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 30 reviews in their first month; the range was 3 to 1k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Visual Novel (8 of 8) and Noir (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Dark Humor + Visual Novel, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2019 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Est. copies
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SteamSpy 50k–100k
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$885–$2k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
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Visual NovelCyberpunk
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3.7x vs typical
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CaveFiction
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PsychedelicVisual Novel
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Est. copies
≈ 20k–33k
6.1x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$95k–$255k after Steam's cut $173k–$393k before Steam's cut
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Choose Your Own AdventureVisual Novel
Magnus Positive Phototaxis
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HorrorEscape Room
DIVINATION
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Est. copies
≈ 6k–10k
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut
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Visual NovelCyberpunk
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Est. copies
≈ 105k–170k
31x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
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Dark HumorVisual Novel
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Est. copies
≈ 298–484
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$81–$218 after Steam's cut $148–$335 before Steam's cut
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Positive
AdventureVisual Novel

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