How much revenue did CaveFiction make?

$2k–$7k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did CaveFiction sell?

Q: How many copies did CaveFiction sell?

2k copies, based on its 61 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 2k; $2k–$7k after Steam's cut $5k–$10k before Steam's cut; from 61 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid CaveFiction and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including CaveFiction's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 798–78k

best case 729k (Milk outside a bag of milk outside a bag of milk)

Games like CaveFiction

A typical game among these

≈ 798–78k copies

≈ $305–$657k after Steam's cut

from ~39 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Milk outside a bag of milk outside a bag of milk at ≈ 556k–903k copies, ≈ $1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 12 reviews in their first month; the range was 3 to 2k.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Visual Novel (8 of 8) and Point & Click (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Visual Novel, priced around $9.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Critters for Sale 2021	Est. copies ≈ 48k–77k 50x vs typical SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $131k–$351k after Steam's cut $237k–$540k before Steam's cut	$9.99	2k reviews Very Positive	SurrealGore
Milk outside a bag of milk outside a bag of milk 2021	Est. copies ≈ 556k–903k 582x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before Steam's cut	$8.99	22k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Psychological Horror Visual Novel
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative 2022	Est. copies ≈ 94k–153k 98x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.0M–$2.8M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	4k reviews Very Positive	Visual NovelMystery
Neuro Horror 2022	Est. copies ≈ 645–1k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $175–$472 after Steam's cut $319–$726 before Steam's cut	$0.99	26 reviews Mixed	CasualVisual Novel
Adventures in the Light & Dark 2018	Est. copies ≈ 122–198 SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $67–$179 after Steam's cut $121–$276 before Steam's cut	$1.99	4 reviews 4 user reviews	CasualIndie
Nott Longa 2021	Est. copies ≈ 645–1k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $885–$2k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut	$4.99	26 reviews Positive	AdventureAlternate History
Hellfire 1988: An Oregon Story 2022	Est. copies ≈ 496–806 SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $135–$363 after Steam's cut $246–$559 before Steam's cut	$0.99	20 reviews Positive	Visual NovelAdventure
Magnus Positive Phototaxis 2022	Est. copies ≈ 1k–2k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $2k–$5k after Steam's cut $3k–$7k before Steam's cut	$4.99	51 reviews Very Positive	HorrorEscape Room