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How many copies did Milk outside a bag of milk outside a bag of milk sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 556k–903k
$1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before Steam's cut
from 22k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Milk outside a bag of milk outside a bag of milk and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Milk outside a bag of milk outside a bag of milk's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 77k–394k
best case 1.9M (NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD)
Games like Milk outside a bag of milk outside a bag of milk

A typical game among these

≈ 77k–394k copies

≈ $231k–$5.9M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Anime (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD at ≈ 1.4M–2.4M copies, ≈ $6.4M–$17.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 164 to 7k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Anime (4 of 8) and Psychological Horror (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Anime, priced around $16.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
≈ 553k–898k
8.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$303k–$813k after Steam's cut $550k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
$1.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
Wild Animal Racing
2016
Est. copies
≈ 113k–183k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$124k–$332k after Steam's cut $225k–$511k before Steam's cut
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Sexual ContentCold War
Creepy Tale 2
2021
Est. copies
≈ 39k–64k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$108k–$290k after Steam's cut $196k–$446k before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
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NarrationSingleplayer
Critters for Sale
2021
Est. copies
≈ 48k–77k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$131k–$351k after Steam's cut $237k–$540k before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
SurrealGore
NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.4M
23x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.4M–$17.1M after Steam's cut $11.6M–$26.3M before Steam's cut
$15.99
58k reviews
Very Positive
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy-
2025
Est. copies
≈ 216k–351k
3.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.2M after Steam's cut $7.6M–$17.2M before Steam's cut
$69.99
9k reviews
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Est. copies
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Video ProductionSoftware

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.