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How many copies did Komodo 3K Arena sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 25–40
$48–$127 after Steam's cut $87–$196 before Steam's cut
from 1 review (1 user reviews)
Only 1 review so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Komodo 3K Arena and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Komodo 3K Arena's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 397k–1.2M
best case 1.3M (Tricolour Lovestory)
Games like Komodo 3K Arena

A typical game among these

≈ 397k–1.2M copies

≈ $1.4M–$2.4M after Steam's cut

from ~12k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Tricolour Lovestory at ≈ 966k–1.6M copies, ≈ $529k–$1.4M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Dating Sim (7 of 8) and Nudity (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel + Dating Sim, priced around $2.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2018. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Tricolour Lovestory
2017
Est. copies
≈ 966k–1.6M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$529k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $961k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
$1.99
28k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelDating Sim
NEKOPARA Vol. 0
2015
Est. copies
≈ 869k–1.4M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$715k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut
$2.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeNudity
Amorous
2018
Est. copies
≈ 316k–514k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
10k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
NEKOPARA Vol. 1
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
27k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HentaiAnime
Maitetsu:Pure Station
2018
Est. copies
≈ 111k–180k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$763k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
4k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sexual ContentAnime
NEKOPARA Vol. 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 535k–870k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.0M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
13k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeSexual Content
NEKOPARA Vol. 3
2017
Est. copies
≈ 414k–672k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
$9.99
12k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HentaiSexual Content
If My Heart Had Wings
2014
Est. copies
≈ 260k–422k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelRomance

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