How much revenue did Tokyo Waning Moon make?

$762–$2k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Tokyo Waning Moon sell?

Q: How many copies did Tokyo Waning Moon sell?

694 to 1k copies, based on its 28 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 694–1k; $762–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut; from 28 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tokyo Waning Moon and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tokyo Waning Moon's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 110k–133k

best case 336k (Bit Blaster XL)

Games like Tokyo Waning Moon

A typical game among these

≈ 110k–133k copies

≈ $306k–$595k after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Bit Blaster XL at ≈ 256k–416k copies, ≈ $70k–$187k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 108 to 3k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Arcade (5 of 8) and Bullet Hell (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Bullet Hell + Shoot 'Em Up, priced around $1. The breakout hits carry Shoot 'Em Up + Shooter + Difficult; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2011 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Gatekeeper 2025	Est. copies ≈ 84k–136k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $346k–$929k after Steam's cut $628k–$1.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	3k reviews Very Positive	Early AccessOnline Co-Op
Orbt XL 2017	Est. copies ≈ 118k–192k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $32k–$86k after Steam's cut $58k–$133k before Steam's cut	$0.99	3k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ArcadeDifficult
Cargo Commander 2012	Est. copies ≈ 59k–95k too small to compare SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $80k–$216k after Steam's cut $146k–$332k before Steam's cut	$4.99	926 reviews Very Positive	IndieProcedural Generation
AaaaaAAaaaAAAaaAAAAaAAAAA!!! for the Awesome 2011	Est. copies ≈ 69k–112k too small to compare SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $190k–$511k after Steam's cut $345k–$786k before Steam's cut	$9.99	1k reviews Mostly Positive	FlightSports
Greedland 2025	Est. copies ≈ 84k–136k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $300k–$807k after Steam's cut $545k–$1.2M before Steam's cut	$12.99	3k reviews Very Positive	Rogue-lite Bullet Hell
Bit Blaster XL 2016	Est. copies ≈ 256k–416k 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $70k–$187k after Steam's cut $127k–$288k before Steam's cut	$0.99	6k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Bullet HellShoot 'Em Up
Steredenn: Binary Stars 2015	Est. copies ≈ 47k–77k too small to compare SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $169k–$454k after Steam's cut $307k–$699k before Steam's cut	$12.99	969 reviews Very Positive	Shoot 'Em UpPixel Graphics
Super Bit Blaster XL 2020	Est. copies ≈ 22k–36k too small to compare SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $18k–$49k after Steam's cut $33k–$75k before Steam's cut	$2.99	886 reviews Very Positive	Bullet HellShoot 'Em Up