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How many copies did Homicipher sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 207k–336k
$796k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
from 8k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Homicipher and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Homicipher's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 68k–103k
best case 287k (Amnesia™: Memories)
Games like Homicipher

A typical game among these

≈ 68k–103k copies

≈ $360k–$628k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Amnesia™: Memories at ≈ 219k–356k copies, ≈ $601k–$1.6M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Anime (7 of 8) and Visual Novel (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Otome + Visual Novel, priced around $10.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2019. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Seduce Me the Otome
2015
Est. copies
≈ 106k–172k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayNudity
Amnesia™: Memories
2015
Est. copies
≈ 219k–356k
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$601k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
OtomeVisual Novel
Miracle Snack Shop
2018
Est. copies
≈ 69k–113k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$190k–$512k after Steam's cut $346k–$788k before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Dating SimVisual Novel
CUPID - A free to play Visual Novel
2016
Est. copies
≈ 54k–88k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlaySexual Content
7'scarlet
2019
Est. copies
≈ 25k–41k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$210k–$565k after Steam's cut $382k–$869k before Steam's cut
$29.99
884 reviews
Mostly Positive
OtomeAdventure
Nameless ~The one thing you must recall~
2014
Est. copies
≈ 43k–70k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$354k–$951k after Steam's cut $643k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
766 reviews
Very Positive
Dating SimOtome
Jesus Christ RPG Trilogy
2016
Est. copies
≈ 67k–108k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$183k–$492k after Steam's cut $333k–$757k before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
MemesRPG
Hustle Cat
2016
Est. copies
≈ 55k–89k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$300k–$807k after Steam's cut $546k–$1.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelIndie

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.