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How big is CUPID - A free to play Visual Novel?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 54k–88k
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid CUPID - A free to play Visual Novel and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including CUPID - A free to play Visual Novel's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.5M–3.6M
best case 10.3M (Doki Doki Literature Club!)
Games like CUPID - A free to play Visual Novel

A typical game among these

≈ 1.5M–3.6M copies

≈ $2.6M–$9.5M after Steam's cut

from ~43k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Doki Doki Literature Club! at ≈ 7.9M–12.8M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Anime (7 of 8) and Sexual Content (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Visual Novel.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Helltaker
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
128k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Free to PlayCute
Mirror
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.1M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.8M before Steam's cut
$1.99
84k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
NEKOPARA Vol. 0
2015
Est. copies
≈ 869k–1.4M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$715k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut
$2.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeNudity
UNO
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
54k reviews
Mostly Positive
Card GameMultiplayer
HuniePop
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
32k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
NudityMature
Crush Crush
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
29k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Tales of Berseria™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 651k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.0M–$24.1M after Steam's cut $16.3M–$37.0M before Steam's cut
$49.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeJRPG
Doki Doki Literature Club!
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.9M–12.8M
5.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
229k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive

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