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How many copies did Projected Dreams sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4k–6k
$15k–$41k after Steam's cut $28k–$63k before Steam's cut
from 148 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Projected Dreams and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Projected Dreams's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 169k–411k
best case 3.6M (OneShot)
Games like Projected Dreams

A typical game among these

≈ 169k–411k copies

≈ $959k–$2.1M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: OneShot at ≈ 2.7M–4.4M copies, ≈ $7.5M–$20.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (8 of 8) and Story Rich (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Puzzle + Story Rich, priced around $17. The breakout hits carry Indie + Great Soundtrack; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Little Nightmares II
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
19x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.0M–$32.3M after Steam's cut $21.8M–$49.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAdventure
Putt-Putt® Goes to the Moon
2014
Est. copies
≈ 15k–25k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$29k–$79k after Steam's cut $53k–$122k before Steam's cut
$6.99
273 reviews
Very Positive
AdventureCasual
Syberia II
2011
Est. copies
≈ 195k–316k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$696k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$2.9M before Steam's cut
$12.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
AdventurePoint & Click
Return of the Obra Dinn
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
11x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.9M–$15.9M after Steam's cut $10.7M–$24.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
35k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectiveMystery
Brothers - A Tale of Two Sons
2013
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
13x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.8M–$28.9M after Steam's cut $19.6M–$44.5M before Steam's cut
$14.99
41k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAtmospheric
Syberia
2011
Est. copies
≈ 432k–702k
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.4M before Steam's cut
$12.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
AdventurePoint & Click
OneShot
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
21x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.5M–$20.1M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$30.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
65k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichPixel Graphics
CHRONO CROSS: THE RADICAL DREAMERS EDITION
2022
Est. copies
≈ 63k–102k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$344k–$926k after Steam's cut $626k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Mixed
JRPGRPG

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