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How many copies did Brothers - A Tale of Two Sons sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
$10.8M–$28.9M after Steam's cut $19.6M–$44.5M before Steam's cut
from 41k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Brothers - A Tale of Two Sons and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Brothers - A Tale of Two Sons's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 619k–1.4M
best case 2.8M (A Plague Tale: Innocence)
Games like Brothers - A Tale of Two Sons

A typical game among these

≈ 619k–1.4M copies

≈ $1.9M–$3.9M after Steam's cut

from ~22k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: A Plague Tale: Innocence at ≈ 2.1M–3.4M copies, ≈ $23.1M–$62.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the range was 515 to 13k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (5 of 8) and Puzzle (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Story Rich, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer + Story Rich + Stealth; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Valiant Hearts: The Great War™ / Soldats Inconnus : Mémoires de la Grande Guerre™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.4M–$17.1M after Steam's cut $11.6M–$26.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
28k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AtmosphericHistorical
Outcore: Desktop Adventure
2022
Est. copies
≈ 457k–743k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
18k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sally Face - Episode One
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.2M before Steam's cut
$2.99
30k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip
2023
Est. copies
≈ 599k–973k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$657k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before Steam's cut
$3.99
24k reviews
Very Positive
A Plague Tale: Innocence
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.1M–3.4M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$23.1M–$62.1M after Steam's cut $42.0M–$95.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
73k reviews
Very Positive
Story RichAdventure
The Last Campfire
2021
Est. copies
≈ 516k–839k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.8M before Steam's cut
$14.99
21k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzleAdventure
Sanfu
2023
Est. copies
≈ 443k–720k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.5M before Steam's cut
$10.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
MysteryRPG
What Remains of Edith Finch
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$41.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichAtmospheric

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