How much revenue did OneShot make?

$7.5M–$20.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did OneShot sell?

Q: How many copies did OneShot sell?

2.7M to 4.4M copies, based on its 65k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 2.7M–4.4M; $7.5M–$20.1M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$30.9M before Steam's cut; from 65k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid OneShot and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including OneShot's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.9M–6.7M

best case 22.0M (Undertale)

Games like OneShot

A typical game among these

≈ 2.9M–6.7M copies

≈ $16.7M–$25.8M after Steam's cut

from ~81k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Story Rich (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Undertale at ≈ 16.8M–27.2M copies, ≈ $46.0M–$123.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 15k reviews in their first month; the range was 4k to 43k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Story Rich (4 of 8) and Multiple Endings (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Precision Platformer + Platformer, priced around $20.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
To the Moon 2012	Est. copies ≈ 5.5M–8.9M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $15.0M–$40.4M after Steam's cut $27.3M–$62.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	87k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichGreat Soundtrack
Katana ZERO 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.6M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $9.0M–$24.3M after Steam's cut $16.4M–$37.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	76k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Pixel GraphicsAction
OMORI 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	89k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Psychological Horror Story Rich
Celeste 2018	Est. copies ≈ 4.5M–7.4M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	149k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Precision PlatformerDifficult
DAVE THE DIVER 2023	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.6M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	163k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Pixel GraphicsCasual
Undertale 2015	Est. copies ≈ 16.8M–27.2M 4.3x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $46.0M–$123.8M after Steam's cut $83.7M–$190.4M before Steam's cut	$9.99	343k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Great SoundtrackStory Rich
Skul: The Hero Slayer 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.4M–2.3M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.9M–$21.2M after Steam's cut $14.3M–$32.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	58k reviews Very Positive	IndieAction
Papers, Please 2013	Est. copies ≈ 5.1M–8.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $14.0M–$37.6M after Steam's cut $25.5M–$57.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	81k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	IndiePolitical