How much revenue did Papers, Please make?

$14.0M–$37.6M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Papers, Please sell?

Q: How many copies did Papers, Please sell?

5.1M to 8.3M copies, based on its 81k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 5.1M–8.3M; $14.0M–$37.6M after Steam's cut $25.5M–$57.9M before Steam's cut; from 81k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Papers, Please and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Papers, Please's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 825k–1.0M

best case 2.0M (Age of History II)

Games like Papers, Please

A typical game among these

≈ 825k–1.0M copies

≈ $4.9M–$12.3M after Steam's cut

from ~25k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Age of History II at ≈ 1.5M–2.5M copies, ≈ $2.5M–$6.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Simulation (7 of 8) and City Builder (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Historical + War, priced around $6. The breakout hits carry War + Turn-Based Strategy + Turn-Based; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024	Est. copies ≈ 682k–1.1M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.5M–$20.2M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$31.0M before Steam's cut	$39.99	27k reviews Very Positive	StrategySimulation
Age of History II 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.5M 2.1x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.5M–$6.8M after Steam's cut $4.6M–$10.4M before Steam's cut	$5.99	50k reviews Very Positive	StrategyHistorical
Garfield Kart 2015	Est. copies ≈ 691k–1.1M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $948k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before Steam's cut	$4.99	14k reviews Very Positive	Cult ClassicCombat Racing
Beholder 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.0M–$13.4M after Steam's cut $9.1M–$20.6M before Steam's cut	$13.99	31k reviews Very Positive	Dystopian Choices Matter
Dawn of Man 2019	Est. copies ≈ 514k–836k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.5M–$9.5M after Steam's cut $6.4M–$14.6M before Steam's cut	$24.99	18k reviews Very Positive	City Builder Colony Sim
Tropico 6 2019	Est. copies ≈ 851k–1.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $9.4M–$25.2M after Steam's cut $17.0M–$38.7M before Steam's cut	$39.99	30k reviews Very Positive	City BuilderStrategy
Foundation 2025	Est. copies ≈ 608k–988k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $5.9M–$15.7M after Steam's cut $10.6M–$24.2M before Steam's cut	$34.99	25k reviews Very Positive	City Builder Simulation
Orwell: Keeping an Eye On You 2016	Est. copies ≈ 648k–1.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.4M before Steam's cut	$9.99	16k reviews Very Positive	Choices MatterPolitical Sim