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How many copies did Warhammer: End Times - Vermintide sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
$8.6M–$23.2M after Steam's cut $15.7M–$35.7M before Steam's cut
from 21k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Warhammer: End Times - Vermintide and predicted how it would do from its 7 similar games. Every figure here, including Warhammer: End Times - Vermintide's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 100.7M–128.4M
best case 820.1M (Counter-Strike 2)
Games like Warhammer: End Times - Vermintide

A typical game among these

≈ 100.7M–128.4M copies

≈ $590.7M–$773.9M after Steam's cut

from ~1.6M reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 7 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Counter-Strike 2 at ≈ 624.8M–1015.3M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share FPS (4 of 7) and Shooter (4 of 7).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Shooter. The breakout hits carry Competitive + Team-Based + e-sports; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Grand Theft Auto V Legacy
2015
Est. copies
≈ 101.5M–164.9M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.1M reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
2015
Est. copies
≈ 76.0M–123.4M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.6M reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
Counter-Strike 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 624.8M–1015.3M
6.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
9.9M reviews
Very Positive
FPSShooter
Rust
2018
Est. copies
≈ 42.7M–69.3M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut $853.3M–$1941.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
1.4M reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalCrafting
Team Fortress 2
2007
Est. copies
≈ 79.1M–128.6M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.3M reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayHero Shooter
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Terraria
2011
Est. copies
≈ 98.5M–160.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut $492.0M–$1119.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
1.6M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSandbox

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.