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How many copies did Dustgrave: A Sandbox RPG sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–4k
$16k–$42k after Steam's cut $28k–$65k before Steam's cut
from 104 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dustgrave: A Sandbox RPG and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dustgrave: A Sandbox RPG's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 105k–187k
best case 1.3M (Battle Brothers)
Games like Dustgrave: A Sandbox RPG

A typical game among these

≈ 105k–187k copies

≈ $715k–$1.6M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Battle Brothers at ≈ 1.0M–1.6M copies, ≈ $8.3M–$22.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 347 to 5k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Tactical RPG (5 of 8) and Turn-Based Strategy (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Medieval + Open World, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Medieval + Character Customization + War; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2026, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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SteamSpy 200k–500k
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1.6x vs typical
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