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How many copies did Star Traders: Frontiers sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 116k–189k
$478k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $869k–$2.0M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Star Traders: Frontiers and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Star Traders: Frontiers's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.5M–9.5M
best case 9.9M (RimWorld)
Games like Star Traders: Frontiers

A typical game among these

≈ 2.5M–9.5M copies

≈ $33.7M–$139.9M after Steam's cut

from ~119k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: RimWorld at ≈ 7.6M–12.3M copies, ≈ $72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 43k reviews in their first month; the range was 19k to 86k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (5 of 8) and Base-Building (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Colony Sim + Base-Building, priced around $35.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Kerbal Space Program
2015
Est. copies
≈ 7.2M–11.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$79.0M–$212.3M after Steam's cut $143.6M–$326.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
147k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SpaceSimulation
RimWorld
2018
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.3M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut $132.2M–$300.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
249k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Stellaris
2016
Est. copies
≈ 8.2M–13.3M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut $204.7M–$465.6M before Steam's cut
$49.99
197k reviews
Very Positive
Factorio
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.9M–9.5M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut $102.5M–$233.1M before Steam's cut
$35.00
236k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationBase-Building
Against the Storm
2023
Est. copies
≈ 934k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.7M–$20.7M after Steam's cut $14.0M–$31.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
38k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyCity Builder
STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$15.0M–$40.4M after Steam's cut $27.3M–$62.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
43k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StrategyRTS
Barotrauma
2023
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.5M–$57.8M after Steam's cut $39.1M–$88.9M before Steam's cut
$34.99
90k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opMultiplayer
Surviving Mars
2018
Est. copies
≈ 889k–1.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
29k reviews
Mostly Positive

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