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How many copies did Barotrauma sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
$21.5M–$57.8M after Steam's cut $39.1M–$88.9M before Steam's cut
from 90k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Barotrauma and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Barotrauma's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 33.6M–40.4M
best case 56.0M (Rust)
Games like Barotrauma

A typical game among these

≈ 33.6M–40.4M copies

≈ $130.6M–$534.6M after Steam's cut

from ~925k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Rust at ≈ 42.7M–69.3M copies, ≈ $469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Survival (3 of 4) and Building (2 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Crafting, priced around $40.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Among Us
2018
Est. copies
≈ 22.8M–37.0M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$31.3M–$84.0M after Steam's cut $56.8M–$129.3M before Steam's cut
$4.99
749k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerSocial Deduction
Apex Legends™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 26.6M–43.2M
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.1M reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayBattle Royale
Rust
2018
Est. copies
≈ 42.7M–69.3M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut $853.3M–$1941.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
1.4M reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalCrafting
ARK: Survival Evolved
2017
Est. copies
≈ 26.8M–43.5M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
779k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.