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How many copies did Divinity: Dragon Commander sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 161k–262k
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.3M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Divinity: Dragon Commander and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Divinity: Dragon Commander's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.1M–15.7M
best case 20.7M (The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition)
Games like Divinity: Dragon Commander

A typical game among these

≈ 3.1M–15.7M copies

≈ $51.7M–$185.3M after Steam's cut

from ~127k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition at ≈ 15.8M–25.6M copies, ≈ $173.2M–$465.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 38k reviews in their first month; the range was 15 to 183k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Fantasy (6 of 8) and Action RPG (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Fantasy, priced around $40.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
2011
Est. copies
≈ 20.1M–32.6M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$110.4M–$296.9M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
318k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.8M–25.6M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$173.2M–$465.8M after Steam's cut $315.0M–$716.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
379k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
Dragon's Dogma 2
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$32.1M–$86.3M after Steam's cut $58.3M–$132.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
118k reviews
Mixed
Open WorldRPG
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered
2025
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.0M–$64.5M after Steam's cut $43.6M–$99.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
70k reviews
Mostly Positive
RPGOpen World
Granblue Fantasy: Relink
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut $27.8M–$63.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
56k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeJRPG
MONSTER HUNTER RISE
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
127k reviews
Very Positive
ActionHunting
Alder Forge
2023
Est. copies
≈ 546–887
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$9k before Steam's cut
$14.99
22 reviews
Positive
JRPGAnime
Monster Hunter Wilds
2025
Est. copies
≈ 8.2M–13.4M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$90.5M–$243.4M after Steam's cut $164.6M–$374.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
332k reviews
Mixed
HuntingAction

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