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How many copies did Lawnmower Game: Mission X sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 446–725
$612–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
from 18 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Lawnmower Game: Mission X and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Lawnmower Game: Mission X's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 83k–124k
best case 1.1M (Sultan's Game)
Games like Lawnmower Game: Mission X

A typical game among these

≈ 83k–124k copies

≈ $721k–$2.5M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Sultan's Game at ≈ 876k–1.4M copies, ≈ $6.0M–$16.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 832 reviews in their first month; the range was 77 to 19k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Automobile Sim (6 of 8) and Racing (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Automobile Sim + Driving, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Early Access + Sandbox + Exploration; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 3 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.