How much revenue did GUARDS! make?

$34k–$91k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did GUARDS! sell?

Q: How many copies did GUARDS! sell?

12k to 20k copies, based on its 498 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 12k–20k; $34k–$91k after Steam's cut $62k–$140k before Steam's cut; from 498 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid GUARDS! and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including GUARDS!'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.0M–3.2M

best case 10.6M (SCP: Secret Laboratory)

Games like GUARDS!

A typical game among these

≈ 1.0M–3.2M copies

≈ $7.9M–$23.7M after Steam's cut

from ~26k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: SCP: Secret Laboratory at ≈ 8.1M–13.1M copies.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Co-op (5 of 8) and Fantasy (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Horror + First-Person.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
FINAL FANTASY XV WINDOWS EDITION 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.8M–2.9M 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $17.0M–$45.8M after Steam's cut $31.0M–$70.5M before Steam's cut	$34.99	58k reviews Very Positive	RPGOpen World
Warhammer: Vermintide 2 2018	Est. copies ≈ 4.5M–7.3M 5.7x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $37.0M–$99.6M after Steam's cut $67.3M–$153.2M before Steam's cut	$29.99	148k reviews Very Positive	Co-opDark Fantasy
Barony 2015	Est. copies ≈ 888k–1.4M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $4.9M–$13.1M after Steam's cut $8.9M–$20.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	18k reviews Very Positive	Dungeon CrawlerAction Roguelike
Warhammer: End Times - Vermintide 2015	Est. copies ≈ 1.0M–1.7M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $8.6M–$23.2M after Steam's cut $15.7M–$35.7M before Steam's cut	$29.99	21k reviews Mostly Positive	ActionOnline Co-Op
Creativerse 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.7M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.3M–$19.5M after Steam's cut $13.2M–$30.0M before Steam's cut	$24.99	31k reviews Mostly Positive	ExplorationSandbox
We Were Here Forever 2022	Est. copies ≈ 471k–765k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before Steam's cut	$17.99	19k reviews Very Positive	Escape RoomOnline Co-Op
SCP: Secret Laboratory 2017	Est. copies ≈ 8.1M–13.1M 9.0x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	235k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayMultiplayer
Nightingale 2024	Est. copies ≈ 448k–729k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.7M–$9.9M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.3M before Steam's cut	$29.99	18k reviews Mixed	Early AccessOpen World Survival Craft