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How many copies did A Hat in Time sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
$15.2M–$40.8M after Steam's cut $27.6M–$62.8M before Steam's cut
from 54k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid A Hat in Time and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including A Hat in Time's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 233k–651k
best case 847k (Spyro™ Reignited Trilogy)
Games like A Hat in Time

A typical game among these

≈ 233k–651k copies

≈ $1.6M–$4.9M after Steam's cut

from ~10k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is 3D Platformer (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Spyro™ Reignited Trilogy at ≈ 645k–1.0M copies, ≈ $7.1M–$19.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 3D Platformer (3 of 8) and Platformer (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with 3D Platformer + Remake, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Spyro™ Reignited Trilogy
2019
Est. copies
≈ 645k–1.0M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.1M–$19.1M after Steam's cut $12.9M–$29.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
3D PlatformerAdventure
Kao the Kangaroo: Round 2 (2003 re-release)
2019
Est. copies
≈ 229k–373k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$125k–$337k after Steam's cut $228k–$519k before Steam's cut
$1.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Adventure3D Platformer
Lil Gator Game
2022
Est. copies
≈ 153k–249k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$843k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CasualCozy
Psychonauts
2006
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.4M–$9.0M after Steam's cut $6.1M–$13.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
PlatformerComedy
Biped
2020
Est. copies
≈ 287k–466k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.2M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
Character CustomizationEmotional
Bang-On Balls: Chronicles
2023
Est. copies
≈ 129k–209k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$885k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
5k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CombatCo-op
Supraland
2019
Est. copies
≈ 446k–725k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
16k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerExploration
Yooka-Laylee
2017
Est. copies
≈ 186k–302k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
5k reviews
Mostly Positive
3D PlatformerCollectathon

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