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How many copies did Only UP sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 794–1k
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
from 32 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Only UP and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Only UP's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 756k–1.9M
best case 2.4M (A Hat in Time)
Games like Only UP

A typical game among these

≈ 756k–1.9M copies

≈ $5.2M–$12.6M after Steam's cut

from ~19k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: A Hat in Time at ≈ 1.8M–3.0M copies, ≈ $15.2M–$40.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 3D Platformer (7 of 8) and Platformer (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with 3D Platformer + Collectathon, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Cute + Collectathon + Indie; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
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SteamSpy 500k–1M
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Adventure3D Platformer
Psychonauts
2006
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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PlatformerComedy
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≈ 473k–769k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
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3D PlatformerMetroidvania
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3D PlatformerRemake
Sonic Adventure 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
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Sonic Adventure DX
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Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
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Est. revenue
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19k reviews
Very Positive
PlatformerGreat Soundtrack
A Hat in Time
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$15.2M–$40.8M after Steam's cut $27.6M–$62.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
54k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Cute3D Platformer

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