How much revenue did The Vanishing of Ethan Carter make?

$2.6M–$6.9M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The Vanishing of Ethan Carter sell?

Q: How many copies did The Vanishing of Ethan Carter sell?

466k to 758k copies, based on its 9k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 466k–758k; $2.6M–$6.9M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.6M before the cut; from 9k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left The Vanishing of Ethan Carter out and predicted the genre from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including The Vanishing of Ethan Carter's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 198k–3.1M

best case 5.2M (Firewatch)

The Mystery genre

All 4 of your similar games are hits. A big, proven genre for a game like yours.

From a small set, so take it as a sketch.

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

A typical game

≈ 198k–3.1M copies

≈ $1.4M–$23.6M after Steam's cut

from ~29k reviews

Best case

≈ 3.9M–6.4M copies

Firewatch · ≈ $21.7M–$58.3M after Steam's cut

The genre you'd be entering

Your set: Your set clusters on Mystery (4 of 4) and Story Rich (4 of 4).
The winners: Winners here lead with Story Rich + Walking Simulator, priced around $20.
The era: None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.

Copies and revenue are rough lifetime estimates from the review count.

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Draugen 2019	Est. copies ≈ 61k–100k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $337k–$907k after Steam's cut $613k–$1.4M before the cut	$19.99	2k reviews Mostly Positive	Story RichMystery
The Suicide of Rachel Foster 2020	Est. copies ≈ 181k–294k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $896k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.7M before the cut	$17.99	7k reviews Mixed	Walking SimulatorMystery
What Remains of Edith Finch 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.8M–2.9M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $9.8M–$26.4M after Steam's cut $17.8M–$40.6M before the cut	$19.99	52k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichAtmospheric
Firewatch 2016	Est. copies ≈ 3.9M–6.4M 3.4x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.7M–$58.3M after Steam's cut $39.4M–$89.7M before the cut	$19.99	99k reviews Very Positive	AdventureAtmospheric