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How big is ASTRAL TALE-星界神話?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 14k–23k
from 575 reviews (Mostly Negative)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid ASTRAL TALE-星界神話 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including ASTRAL TALE-星界神話's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 325k–561k
best case 651k (Metin2)
Games like ASTRAL TALE-星界神話

A typical game among these

≈ 325k–561k copies

from ~11k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Metin2 at ≈ 496k–806k copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 7k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share MMORPG (8 of 8) and Open World (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with MMORPG + Action RPG.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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