How much revenue did Probably Archery make?

$18k–$49k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Probably Archery sell?

Q: How many copies did Probably Archery sell?

22k to 36k copies, based on its 399 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 22k–36k; $18k–$49k after Steam's cut $33k–$76k before Steam's cut; from 399 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Probably Archery and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Probably Archery's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–9k

best case 38k (Holopoint)

Games like Probably Archery

A typical game among these

≈ 2k–9k copies

≈ $10k–$21k after Steam's cut

from ~96 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Holopoint at ≈ 29k–47k copies, ≈ $88k–$237k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 31 reviews in their first month; the range was 24 to 41.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Sports (8 of 8) and Archery (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Sports + VR, priced around $11.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Cricket Through the Ages 2024	Est. copies ≈ 2k–3k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $4k–$11k after Steam's cut $8k–$17k before Steam's cut	$7.99	77 reviews Very Positive	ActionCasual
Holopoint 2016	Est. copies ≈ 29k–47k 7.4x vs typical SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $88k–$237k after Steam's cut $160k–$365k before Steam's cut	$10.99	702 reviews Very Positive	SportsVR
VR SUPER SPORTS 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4k–7k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $15k–$40k after Steam's cut $27k–$62k before Steam's cut	$12.99	122 reviews Mixed	SportsAction
Nock 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1k–2k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $8k–$21k after Steam's cut $14k–$32k before Steam's cut	$19.99	57 reviews Very Positive	Arena ShooterSports
Super Space Pug 2016	Est. copies ≈ 13k–22k 3.4x vs typical SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $7k–$20k after Steam's cut $13k–$31k before Steam's cut	$1.99	324 reviews Mixed	Side ScrollerBullet Hell
Go Kart Run! 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3k–5k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue Free	Free	114 reviews Mixed	RacingFree to Play
Sky Sanctuary 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1k–2k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut	$2.99	51 reviews Very Positive	ActionSports
Presentiment of Death 2023	Est. copies ≈ 2k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $6k–$17k after Steam's cut $12k–$26k before Steam's cut	$14.99	62 reviews Mostly Positive	ActionSports