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How many copies did Fantasy Blacksmith Shop Simulator sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 322–524
$442–$1k after Steam's cut $803–$2k before Steam's cut
from 13 reviews (Mostly Negative)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Fantasy Blacksmith Shop Simulator and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Fantasy Blacksmith Shop Simulator's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–84k
best case 586k (Shop Titans)
Games like Fantasy Blacksmith Shop Simulator

A typical game among these

≈ 2k–84k copies

≈ $12k–$244k after Steam's cut

from ~512 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Shop Titans at ≈ 446k–725k copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 202 reviews in their first month; the range was 12 to 1k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (7 of 8) and Shop Keeper (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Idler + Shop Keeper.
When they shipped
5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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SimulationEconomy

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.