How much revenue did Ignited in Cavern make?

$19k–$51k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Ignited in Cavern sell?

Q: How many copies did Ignited in Cavern sell?

35k to 56k copies, based on its 1k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 35k–56k; $19k–$51k after Steam's cut $34k–$78k before Steam's cut; from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Ignited in Cavern and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ignited in Cavern's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 84k–198k

best case 2.0M (The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty)

Games like Ignited in Cavern

A typical game among these

≈ 84k–198k copies

≈ $377k–$941k after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty at ≈ 1.5M–2.4M copies, ≈ $4.1M–$11.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 563 reviews in their first month; the range was 113 to 13k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Visual Novel (8 of 8) and Word Game (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Visual Novel + Historical, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Cooking + Dark + Historical; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2017 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Aonatsu Line 2022	Est. copies ≈ 25k–41k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $242k–$652k after Steam's cut $441k–$1.0M before Steam's cut	$34.99	1k reviews Very Positive	CasualAdventure
恋爱绮谭~不存在的夏天~ 2020	Est. copies ≈ 73k–119k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $181k–$487k after Steam's cut $329k–$749k before Steam's cut	$8.99	3k reviews Very Positive	Visual NovelMystery
Aliya: Timelink 2024	Est. copies ≈ 240k–390k 3.3x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $197k–$530k after Steam's cut $359k–$816k before Steam's cut	$2.99	10k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	RPGInteractive Fiction
WILL: A Wonderful World / WILL：美好世界 2017	Est. copies ≈ 189k–307k 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $778k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut	$14.99	5k reviews Very Positive	Visual Novel Story Rich
月に寄りそう乙女の作法 2022	Est. copies ≈ 113k–184k 1.5x vs typical SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $1.2M–$3.4M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.2M before Steam's cut	$39.99	5k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Visual NovelWord Game
Hakuoki: Kyoto Winds 2017	Est. copies ≈ 80k–131k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $221k–$594k after Steam's cut $401k–$913k before Steam's cut	$9.99	2k reviews Very Positive	OtomeVisual Novel
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty 2024	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M 20x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.1M–$11.0M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	60k reviews Very Positive	Visual NovelHistorical
恋爱绮谭不存在的真相 2022	Est. copies ≈ 55k–89k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $211k–$568k after Steam's cut $384k–$873k before Steam's cut	$13.99	2k reviews Very Positive	Interactive FictionWord Game