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How many copies did Dawnmaker sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4k–7k
$17k–$45k after Steam's cut $31k–$70k before Steam's cut
from 165 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dawnmaker and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dawnmaker's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1k
best case 27k (Blood Rage: Digital Edition)
Games like Dawnmaker

A typical game among these

≈ 1k copies

≈ $4k–$21k after Steam's cut

from ~38 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Blood Rage: Digital Edition at ≈ 21k–34k copies, ≈ $114k–$308k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 23 reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 326.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Card Game (5 of 8) and Board Game (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Board Game + Vikings, priced around $13. The breakout hits carry Multiplayer + Vikings + Tabletop; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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