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How many copies did Matching Meadows sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 868–1k
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
from 35 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Matching Meadows and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Matching Meadows's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 33k–2.0M
best case 8.3M (Slay the Spire)
Games like Matching Meadows

A typical game among these

≈ 33k–2.0M copies

≈ $13k–$37.4M after Steam's cut

from ~20k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Slay the Spire at ≈ 6.3M–10.3M copies, ≈ $43.5M–$116.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 3 to 20k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Card Game (8 of 8) and Deckbuilding (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Roguelike Deckbuilder + Card Game, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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SteamSpy 2M–5M
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Artifact
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Slay the Spire
2019
Est. copies
≈ 6.3M–10.3M
11x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
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$43.5M–$116.9M after Steam's cut $79.0M–$179.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
220k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Inscryption
2021
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≈ 3.7M–6.0M
7.5x vs typical
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Overwhelmingly Positive
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Kemotaku
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SteamSpy under 20k
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7 user reviews
Card GameCard Battler
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SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$7k–$19k after Steam's cut $13k–$29k before Steam's cut
$9.99
104 reviews
Very Positive

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