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How many copies did Maxwell's puzzling demon sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 11k–17k
$44k–$118k after Steam's cut $80k–$181k before Steam's cut
from 428 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Maxwell's puzzling demon and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Maxwell's puzzling demon's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5k–28k
best case 192k (Patrick's Parabox)
Games like Maxwell's puzzling demon

A typical game among these

≈ 5k–28k copies

≈ $5k–$127k after Steam's cut

from ~250 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Patrick's Parabox at ≈ 146k–237k copies, ≈ $803k–$2.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 74 reviews in their first month; the range was 21 to 897.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Logic (8 of 8) and Puzzle (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Puzzle + Sokoban, priced around $20.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Patrick's Parabox
2022
Est. copies
≈ 146k–237k
24x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$803k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzleSokoban
Hexologic
2018
Est. copies
≈ 42k–67k
5.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$57k–$153k after Steam's cut $104k–$236k before Steam's cut
$4.99
1k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
LogicPuzzle
Chess Brain
2020
Est. copies
≈ 4k–7k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$0.99
164 reviews
Very Positive
SokobanChess
Block in the Lock
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2k–4k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
75 reviews
Very Positive
SokobanPuzzle
Yugo Puzzle
2021
Est. copies
≈ 8k–14k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$14k–$37k after Steam's cut $25k–$57k before Steam's cut
$5.99
336 reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleIndie
Can of Wormholes
2023
Est. copies
≈ 15k–24k
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$81k–$218k after Steam's cut $147k–$336k before Steam's cut
$19.99
595 reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SokobanIndie
Knight Swap
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4k–7k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$0.99
149 reviews
Very Positive
SokobanPuzzle
Rob Riches
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$4k–$10k after Steam's cut $7k–$16k before Steam's cut
$6.99
81 reviews
Very Positive

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