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How big is Heroine's Quest: The Herald of Ragnarok?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 79k–129k
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Heroine's Quest: The Herald of Ragnarok and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Heroine's Quest: The Herald of Ragnarok's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.4M–10.6M
best case 35.2M (ARK: Survival Evolved)
Games like Heroine's Quest: The Herald of Ragnarok

A typical game among these

≈ 7.4M–10.6M copies

≈ $94.8M–$113.3M after Steam's cut

from ~235k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is MMORPG (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: ARK: Survival Evolved at ≈ 26.8M–43.5M copies, ≈ $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 102k reviews in their first month; the range was 57k to 128k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share MMORPG (4 of 8) and Action RPG (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Open World Survival Craft + Survival + Open World; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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3.3x vs typical
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