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How many copies did Maize sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 89k–145k
$245k–$659k after Steam's cut $446k–$1.0M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Maize and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Maize's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 663k–1.5M
best case 38.8M (Portal 2)
Games like Maize

A typical game among these

≈ 663k–1.5M copies

≈ $4.3M–$8.6M after Steam's cut

from ~22k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Portal 2 at ≈ 29.5M–48.0M copies, ≈ $81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 11k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (5 of 8) and Comedy (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Puzzle + First-Person, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry First-Person + Puzzle-Platformer + Female Protagonist; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.8M–$28.9M after Steam's cut $19.5M–$44.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
45k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectiveVisual Novel
Life is Strange 2
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.0M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
41k reviews
Very Positive
Choices MatterStory Rich
Outcore: Desktop Adventure
2022
Est. copies
≈ 457k–743k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
18k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Portal 2
2011
Est. copies
≈ 29.5M–48.0M
21x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut $147.5M–$335.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
467k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Portal
2007
Est. copies
≈ 12.6M–20.5M
9.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
199k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzlePuzzle-Platformer
Gunpoint
2013
Est. copies
≈ 843k–1.4M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.2M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
13k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StealthIndie
House Party
2022
Est. copies
≈ 383k–623k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.1M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$10.9M before Steam's cut
$24.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
NudityMature
There Is No Game: Wrong Dimension
2020
Est. copies
≈ 648k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.2M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before Steam's cut
$12.99
26k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
IndieAdventure

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