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How many copies did Gunpoint sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 843k–1.4M
$2.3M–$6.2M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before Steam's cut
from 13k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Gunpoint and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Gunpoint's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.7M–4.4M
best case 5.8M (Stray)
Games like Gunpoint

A typical game among these

≈ 2.7M–4.4M copies

≈ $22.7M–$40.4M after Steam's cut

from ~68k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Stray at ≈ 4.4M–7.2M copies, ≈ $36.6M–$98.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 69k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Horror (6 of 8) and Dark (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Cats + Cyberpunk, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

SOMA
2015
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.4M–$57.4M after Steam's cut $38.8M–$88.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Little Nightmares
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut $40.1M–$91.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
117k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAtmospheric
INSIDE
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut $39.7M–$90.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2.5DPuzzle-Platformer
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$17.6M–$47.3M after Steam's cut $32.0M–$72.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
38k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StealthStrategy
Amnesia: The Dark Descent
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.4M–$33.4M after Steam's cut $22.6M–$51.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorGore
DEVOUR
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.0M–$16.2M after Steam's cut $11.0M–$24.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
88k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorOnline Co-Op
Little Nightmares II
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.0M–$32.3M after Steam's cut $21.8M–$49.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAdventure
Stray
2022
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$36.6M–$98.3M after Steam's cut $66.5M–$151.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
179k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CatsAdventure

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