How much revenue did Heretical make?

$106k–$286k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Heretical sell?

Q: How many copies did Heretical sell?

26k to 42k copies, based on its 1k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 26k–42k; $106k–$286k after Steam's cut $193k–$439k before Steam's cut; from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Heretical and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Heretical's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.2M–8.0M

best case 33.8M (The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth)

Games like Heretical

A typical game among these

≈ 3.2M–8.0M copies

≈ $9.2M–$77.5M after Steam's cut

from ~112k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth at ≈ 25.8M–41.9M copies, ≈ $106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 42k reviews in their first month; the range was 42k to 63k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Rogue-like (8 of 8) and Action Roguelike (7 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-like, priced around $15.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2011 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Hades 2020	Est. copies ≈ 7.7M–12.5M 2.8x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $52.9M–$142.2M after Steam's cut $96.1M–$218.7M before Steam's cut	$24.99	310k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Action RoguelikeRogue-lite
Brotato 2023	Est. copies ≈ 3.0M–4.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $4.1M–$10.9M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.8M before Steam's cut	$4.99	119k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Rogue-likeSingleplayer
Dead Cells 2018	Est. copies ≈ 5.6M–9.1M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $38.4M–$103.2M after Steam's cut $69.8M–$158.8M before Steam's cut	$24.99	184k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AdventureAction Roguelike
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth 2014	Est. copies ≈ 25.8M–41.9M 4.1x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut $193.0M–$439.2M before Steam's cut	$14.99	460k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Spelunky 2013	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.7M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.3M–$11.7M after Steam's cut $7.9M–$18.0M before Steam's cut	$14.99	17k reviews Very Positive	Platformer Rogue-like
Gunfire Reborn 2021	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $14.2M–$38.1M after Steam's cut $25.7M–$58.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	104k reviews Very Positive	Rogue-lite FPS
Risk of Rain (2013) 2013	Est. copies ≈ 1.9M–3.1M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $5.2M–$13.9M after Steam's cut $9.4M–$21.4M before Steam's cut	$9.99	30k reviews Very Positive	Action RoguelikeRogue-like
The Binding of Isaac 2011	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut	$4.99	63k reviews Very Positive	Action RoguelikeRogue-like