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How many copies did 3番線 | Sanbansen sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 670–1k
$920–$2k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
from 27 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid 3番線 | Sanbansen and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including 3番線 | Sanbansen's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 689k–1.3M
best case 1.1M (Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut)
Games like 3番線 | Sanbansen

A typical game among these

≈ 689k–1.3M copies

≈ $5.1M–$8.3M after Steam's cut

from ~20k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Simulation (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut at ≈ 856k–1.4M copies, ≈ $4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (4 of 8) and Exploration (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel + Choices Matter, priced around $18.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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InvestigationTyping
NBA 2K19
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SportsBasketball
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PuzzleExploration
Youtubers Life
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ManagementSingleplayer
Who's Your Daddy?!
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.2M
1.6x vs typical
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≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
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$14.99
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Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut
2023
Est. copies
≈ 856k–1.4M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before Steam's cut
$17.99
35k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelChoices Matter
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2022
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≈ 383k–623k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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$2.6M–$7.1M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$10.9M before Steam's cut
$24.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
NudityMature

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