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How many copies did Gone Home sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
$4.8M–$12.9M after Steam's cut $8.7M–$19.9M before Steam's cut
from 18k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Gone Home and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Gone Home's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.9M–4.8M
best case 11.3M (Life is Strange - Episode 1)
Games like Gone Home

A typical game among these

≈ 2.9M–4.8M copies

≈ $19.2M–$34.0M after Steam's cut

from ~53k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Life is Strange - Episode 1 at ≈ 8.6M–14.0M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (7 of 8) and First-Person (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Story Rich + Choices Matter. The breakout hits carry Choices Matter + Female Protagonist + Time Travel; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2017. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 43 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Life is Strange - Episode 1
2015
Est. copies
≈ 8.6M–14.0M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
176k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichChoices Matter
INSIDE
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut $39.7M–$90.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2.5DPuzzle-Platformer
To the Moon
2012
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.0M–$40.4M after Steam's cut $27.3M–$62.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
87k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichGreat Soundtrack
A Story About My Uncle
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$6.8M–$18.2M after Steam's cut $12.3M–$27.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureFirst-Person
Firewatch
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's cut $41.6M–$94.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
100k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAtmospheric
Brothers - A Tale of Two Sons
2013
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.8M–$28.9M after Steam's cut $19.6M–$44.5M before Steam's cut
$14.99
41k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAtmospheric
What Remains of Edith Finch
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$41.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichAtmospheric
The Stanley Parable
2013
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
46k reviews
Very Positive
ComedyNarration

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