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How many copies did OneShot: World Machine Edition sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 144k–234k
$395k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $719k–$1.6M before Steam's cut
from 6k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid OneShot: World Machine Edition and predicted how it would do from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including OneShot: World Machine Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.8M–5.0M
best case 5.8M (Stray)
Games like OneShot: World Machine Edition

A typical game among these

≈ 3.8M–5.0M copies

≈ $37.2M–$53.8M after Steam's cut

from ~108k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Stray at ≈ 4.4M–7.2M copies, ≈ $36.6M–$98.3M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Exploration (2 of 3) and Story Rich (2 of 3).
The winners
Winners here lead with Cats + Cyberpunk, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

INSIDE
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut $39.7M–$90.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2.5DPuzzle-Platformer
Outer Wilds
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$18.5M–$49.7M after Steam's cut $33.6M–$76.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
108k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ExplorationSpace
Stray
2022
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$36.6M–$98.3M after Steam's cut $66.5M–$151.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
179k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CatsAdventure

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.