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How many copies did JudgeSim sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 36k–58k
$69k–$186k after Steam's cut $126k–$286k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid JudgeSim and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including JudgeSim's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–9k
best case 22k (Legal Dungeon)
Games like JudgeSim

A typical game among these

≈ 2k–9k copies

≈ $3k–$34k after Steam's cut

from ~187 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Legal Dungeon at ≈ 17k–28k copies, ≈ $33k–$88k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 21 reviews in their first month; the range was 11 to 109.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Political (6 of 8) and Simulation (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Detective, priced around $7.
When they shipped
Only 1 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.