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How many copies did UFO: Aftermath sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 19k–31k
$21k–$57k after Steam's cut $38k–$87k before Steam's cut
from 343 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid UFO: Aftermath and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including UFO: Aftermath's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 607k–1.5M
best case 4.9M (XCOM: Enemy Unknown)
Games like UFO: Aftermath

A typical game among these

≈ 607k–1.5M copies

≈ $3.7M–$17.9M after Steam's cut

from ~21k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: XCOM: Enemy Unknown at ≈ 3.7M–6.0M copies, ≈ $15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 707 to 21k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sci-fi (7 of 8) and Aliens (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Strategy + Tactical, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$14.3M–$38.4M after Steam's cut $26.0M–$59.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
23k reviews
Mixed
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Starship Troopers: Terran Command
2022
Est. copies
≈ 299k–486k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRTS
XCOM®: Chimera Squad
2020
Est. copies
≈ 582k–947k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.3M after Steam's cut $2.9M–$6.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
23k reviews
Mostly Positive
XCOM: Enemy Unknown
2012
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.0M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut $27.8M–$63.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
Turn-Based StrategyTactical
Natural Selection 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 845k–1.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before Steam's cut
$4.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerStrategy
The Cycle: Frontier
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
45k reviews
Mixed
Extraction ShooterSurvival
Crysis Remastered
2021
Est. copies
≈ 442k–719k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.6M–$9.8M after Steam's cut $6.6M–$15.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
18k reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionFPS
Aliens: Dark Descent
2023
Est. copies
≈ 469k–763k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.2M–$13.9M after Steam's cut $9.4M–$21.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyAction

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