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How many copies did Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
$14.3M–$38.4M after Steam's cut $26.0M–$59.0M before Steam's cut
from 23k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 290k–666k
best case 1.3M (BATTLETECH)
Games like Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™

A typical game among these

≈ 290k–666k copies

≈ $2.9M–$4.3M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: BATTLETECH at ≈ 1.0M–1.6M copies, ≈ $11.1M–$29.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sci-fi (8 of 8) and Turn-Based (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mechs + Turn-Based Tactics, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Mechs + Turn-Based Tactics + Tactical; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2008 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
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too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
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4k reviews
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Galactic Civilizations III
2015
Est. copies
≈ 508k–825k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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AliensSci-fi
X-COM: UFO Defense
2008
Est. copies
≈ 253k–411k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$347k–$934k after Steam's cut $632k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$4.99
4k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StrategyClassic
Age of Wonders: Planetfall
2019
Est. copies
≈ 193k–313k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.3M after Steam's cut $2.9M–$6.6M before Steam's cut
$29.99
7k reviews
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StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
ENDLESS Space™ - Definitive Edition
2012
Est. copies
≈ 607k–987k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
Strategy4X
BATTLETECH
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.1M–$29.9M after Steam's cut $20.2M–$46.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
33k reviews
Very Positive
MechsStrategy
Master of Orion
2016
Est. copies
≈ 341k–554k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
8k reviews
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Strategy4X
Terraforming Mars
2018
Est. copies
≈ 221k–358k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
7k reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategyBoard Game

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